NFL Playoff Preview

2022-23 NFL Playoff Preview

The college football season came to an end this past week, allowing football fans to turn their focus to the upcoming NFL playoffs and Super Bowl LVII. Fans may notice something different about the big game this year, as Apple Music will replace Pepsi as the sponsor of the Super Bowl halftime show. Pepsi has sponsored the highly sought-after show for the past 10 years, with last year’s show garnering over 120 million viewers. Another shock to fans was when Anheuser-Busch ended their 33-year-long exclusive deal with the Super Bowl, meaning that for the first time since 1989, other alcoholic brands will be able to advertise during the game.

The NFL has also implemented a supplier diversity initiative program to help meet the needs of Super Bowl LVII. This program, called “Business Connect,” aims to connect local businesses that are minority, women, LGBTQ+, and veteran-owned to contract opportunities as a Super Bowl supplier. These businesses will be essential in the functionality of operations on gameday, supplying things such as food and beverages, staffing, transportation, security, and more. The NFL has a history of supporting its host cities, and this program shows progress in its commitment to diversity and inclusion. 

As the 2022-2023 NFL regular season concludes, 14 teams advance to the playoffs in hopes of winning Super Bowl LVII. Among these 14 teams, 7 return from last season’s playoffs, while the other 7 hope to make it a recurring theme. This year’s Super Bowl takes place in State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona for the first time since 2015. While there’s no shoo-in for a winner this year, the teams competing to take home the Lombardi Trophy are all strong contenders and we have our eyes on a few to go all the way.

NFC Playoff Participants

NFL Playoff Preview

The Philadelphia Eagles enter the playoffs as the NFC’s number-one seed, boasting a record of 14-3. The Eagles dominated the league for much of the season, winning their first 8 games and 13 of 14 to start the year. However, an injury to star quarterback Jalen Hurts in week 15 halted the team’s momentum and spurred back-to-back losses. Hurts’ healthy return into the playoffs is a huge boost for the Eagles offense, as Hurts has accounted for 35 TDs – 13 of those coming via his legs. The Eagles also possess two of the league’s strongest units in the trenches. The offensive line has powered the Eagles rushing attack, ranking number five in yards and number one in TDs. The defensive line has wrecked opposing quarterbacks all season with a league-leading 70 sacks, 15 more than the next-best team. The Eagles will rely on a first-round bye, dominant play in the trenches, and Jalen Hurts’ dynamic playmaking to propel them on a deep playoff run. All eyes are on the Super Bowl in South Philly. 

The number two seed in the NFC belongs to the San Francisco 49ers, winners of their last ten games. There is perhaps no roster in the entire league with more talent across the board than the Niners. A loaded offense secured even more ammo when they acquired running back Christian McCaffrey from Carolina, who has scored 10 TDs since coming over in week 7. The one looming question for the Niners is whether rookie Quarterback Brock Purdy, “Mr. Irrelevant”,  can handle the pressure of the playoffs. With their top two QBs getting hurt in the regular season, the Niners turned to Purdy in week 13, and they haven’t missed a beat. On the defensive side of the ball, San Francisco has the top-scoring defense. Their pass rush is led by defensive end Nick Bosa, who is in the conversation to be the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. If the Niners’ defense can limit their opponent’s scoring and keep the pressure off rookie QB Brock Purdy, they should be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. 

The number 3 seed Minnesota Vikings may have one of the most deceiving records in NFL history. Minnesota enters the playoffs with a 13-4 record despite having a point differential of -3. When Minnesota wins, it’s almost always close, as 11 of their 13 victories have come in one-score games. But when Minnesota loses, they tend to get dismantled with their 4 losses coming by a combined 89 points! Additionally, two of those losses have come to the Eagles and Cowboys, who block Minnesota’s path to the Super Bowl. Minnesota has playmakers on offense headlined by QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, and WR Justin Jefferson. However, Cousins has a perceived inability to win big games, and the numbers back it up. Cousins has a career 1-3 record in the playoffs and a startling 10-40 career record against teams that finished the season with a winning record. The Viking defense doesn’t provide much hope either, as their pass defense ranks 31st in passing yards allowed. The Vikings have a good record, but their luck will likely run out in the playoffs. 

Tom Brady’s Buccaneers are back in the playoffs in 2023. The team secured a  number 4 seed by winning the feeble NFC South division despite an unimpressive 8-9 record. It was a challenging season for the Bucs. Until their clinched week 17 win against the Panthers, they struggled to find an offensive rhythm. Although Brady was able to connect with receiver Mike Evans for 3 TDs in that game, it’s hard to believe an offense ranking 25th in points scored has miraculously figured it out. The Bucs have been an average team, but if the defense can keep the game close, Brady can’t be counted out as he chases ring number eight. 

The first wild card spot and number five seed in the NFC belongs to the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have been led this season by a high-powered offense that ranks 2nd in the conference in total points scored. They have home run hitters on offense with receiver CeeDee Lamb and running back Tony Pollard. QB Dak Prescott tied for a league-worst 15  interceptions, but the Cowboys have maintained enough talent on both sides of the ball to overcome his turnovers.  The Cowboy defense is led by outside linebacker Micah Parsons who has a knack for making impact plays. The defense leads the league with 33 takeaways, which prove valuable come playoff time. Dallas hasn’t lived up to the reputation of “Americas Team” in recent history, winning only 3 playoff games in the last 25 years. But that could change this year as their talent-packed roster faces a juicy first-round matchup with Tom Brady’s Buccaneers.

Perhaps the most unexpected team to qualify for this year’s playoffs is the New York Giants. After failing to win more than 6 games in any of the previous 5 seasons, first-year head coach Brian Daboll has seemingly resurrected the franchise. He’s now led the team to a 9-7-1 record and their first playoff berth in six years. Quarterback Daniel Jones, also known as “Danny Dimes”, played the best season of his career, accounting for 22 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions, while throwing to receivers most fans have never heard of. Jones’ evolution into a dual-threat option has given the Giants’ offense a much-needed boost.  After battling injury the past two years, running back Saquon Barkley rebounded this season with a career-high in rushing yards. The Giants have also secured the ball, as they have the lowest turnover percentage in the league. On the defensive side of the ball, the Giants’ game plan is defined by one word: BLITZ! They have the highest blitz percentage of any team in the league and are led by a ferocious defensive line which is the best unit on the entire team. Big Blue may not possess as much talent as the other playoff teams,  but their toughness and ability to capitalize on opponent mistakes may be enough for them to surprise some people and go on a run. 

After trading away franchise quarterback Russell Wilson and releasing linebacker Bobby Wagner, many believed the tank was on in Seattle. The Seattle Seahawks, a team many predicted to be one of the worst in the league, now holds the final playoff spot in the NFC with a little help from the Detroit Lions. The Lions defeated the Packers in the NFL’s regular-season finale, allowing the Seahawks to retain their wild card spot. QB Geno Smith surprised fans when he earned Pro Bowl honors in his first season as a full-time starter since 2014. Similarly, the defense has relied on several players outperforming their expectations. Fifth-round draft pick Tariq Woolen tied for the league lead in interceptions in his rookie campaign, providing a much-needed spark in the secondary after veteran Jamal Adams’ week 1 injury. The Seahawks are playing with house money at this point in the season, which makes them a dangerous opponent. They will need the defense to create turnovers and allow Geno Smith to air it out to continue their storybook season. 

AFC Playoff Participants

The first-round bye on the AFC side belongs to the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl and the AFC’s number-one seed, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs finish the regular season 14-3 behind the right arm of likely MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes had another stellar season leading the league in both passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41).  His favorite target, tight end Travis Kelce, is the premier player at the position and makes the duo nearly unstoppable. Kansas City’s defense is a middle-of-the-pack unit, but there are question marks on that side of the ball. The Chiefs have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the entire league, which is cause for concern when competing in a conference that is loaded with QB talent. A Super Bowl will be the expectation every season that Mahomes lines up under center, but a deep playoff run depends on the defense’s ability to defend the pass. 

NFL Playoff Preview

The last two weeks have been an emotional rollercoaster for the number two seed Buffalo Bills. Week 17’s game was canceled after safety Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest on the field. Thankfully, Hamlin’s health continues to improve, which gives Buffalo a chance to refocus on their playoff goals. It was unknown how such a  traumatic event would impact Buffalo on the field, but that question was answered in week 18 with an emotional victory over the Patriots. The Bills are led by physically gifted quarterback Josh Allen, who has totaled 42 touchdowns this season. As good as the Bills’ offense is, the defense may be even better. The defense ranks 2nd in points allowed per game and 4th in takeaways per game, giving their potent offense even more opportunity to capitalize. Buffalo is one of the most complete teams in the league and should be making a deep playoff run as long as Allen can limit red zone turnovers, which have haunted him of late. 

An eight-game winning streak accompanies the number three seed Cincinnati Bengals into the playoffs. Cincinnati is looking to avenge last season’s Super Bowl loss and prove to everyone that it was no fluke. Quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase maintain chemistry from their days together at LSU to power the Bengals’ offense to 26.1 points per game. The Bengals’ stellar defense in last season’s Super Bowl run carries momentum into this season. They rank 6th in points allowed per game but have struggled to rush the passer this season, tallying only 30 sacks, which ranks last among all playoff teams. The Bengals will rely on Burrows’ right arm and a strong red zone defense to try and represent the AFC in the big game once again. 

AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars claimed the number four seed after defeating the Titans in a week 18 thriller. The defense propelled them to victory after scoring a late touchdown to give the team their first lead of the game. The Jags needed to win each of their final five games to have any chance of winning the division, and they did just that. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence has proven why he was the first overall pick in 2021, amassing 25 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions with an almost entirely new receiving core. The defense relies on their pass rush which generates the 5th highest hurry percentage while only blitzing on 21% of plays. Jacksonville is a young team with a lot of momentum, making them a dangerous opponent despite a less-than-stellar 9-8 record. 

Many people selected the Los Angeles Chargers as a Super Bowl sleeper before the season, but a rocky start caused the Chargers to settle for the first wild card spot with a 10-7 record. Injuries were a common theme early on as the Chargers seemed to battle them at nearly every position. However, as the team got healthy down the stretch, they were able to win four straight games before dropping a meaningless game to the Broncos in week 18. Young stud QB Justin Herbert powered through a rib injury while leaning on running back Austin Ekeler to supply much of the scoring. Ekeler accounted for 18 total touchdowns this season, the most of any player in the league. The defense relies on veterans across the field, headlined by pass rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. The Chargers have the talent to go on a run, but it will be difficult given the premier teams at the top of the conference hold the home-field advantage over Los Angeles. 

The second wild card on the AFC side belongs to the 10-7 Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens come  into the playoffs with a huge question mark surrounding their most valuable player. Former MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered a knee injury in week 13 that has kept him out ever since. The team has gone 2-3 in his absence and failed to find any rhythm on the offensive side of the ball. It is still unknown if Jackson will be ready to play in the first round of the playoffs, and if he is, how effective he will be running the football. The Ravens’ outstanding defense has been the main reason behind their winning record. They held opponents to 18.5 points per game and the least rushing yards of any AFC playoff team. For the Ravens to go on a run, they will need Jackson to be explosive with his legs and lean on the defense to smother their opponents, which seems like a longshot considering the uncertainty surrounding Jackson. 

The Miami Dolphins claimed the final playoff spot in the AFC after an ugly week 18 victory over the Jets. Miami was without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa after multiple concussions cast doubt on the future of his career. The Dolphins have an elite receiving duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson has not been able to get them the ball consistently. The defense does not provide much hope either, as they allow more points than any other AFC team in the playoffs. Of all the teams in the playoffs, Miami is the least likely to advance past the first round as they await a  brutal first-round matchup with the Bills.

Sources:

  1. https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/23/media/nfl-super-bowl-halftime-show-sponsor-pepsi/index.html
  2. https://www.pymnts.com/apple/2022/apple-music-replaces-pepsi-as-nfl-super-bowl-halftime-show-sponsor/
  3. https://www.azsuperbowl.com/business-connect/
  4. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/index.htm
  5. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing.htm
  6. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/opp.htm
  7. https://sportsandfitnessdigest.com/kirk-cousins-record-against-winning-teams/
  8. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/kirk-cousins-career-playoff-win-loss-record
  9. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/cowboys-playoff-wins-last-25-years

What to Look Forward to: 2022 NFL Season

The 2022 NFL season is officially underway, with the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Los Angeles Rams, suffering a major loss to the Buffalo Bills during the Thursday night season kick-off game. This season will look a little different though, from partnership activity to new rules, and everything in between. 

All is Fair in Football and Overtime

Major rule changes don’t often come along without a catalyst, and one of this year’s shifts sparked from a prior Bills’ game. The 2021 AFC Divisional round matchup between the Chiefs and Bills was one for the ages. In a duel between two of the bright young quarterbacks in the league, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the two teams played an instant classic that sparked major controversy for days to come. At the time, the overtime rules indicated that one team would pick heads or tails, and whoever won the toss had the opportunity to end the game on the first possession. Unfortunately for the Bills, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs won the coin toss and did just that. Players and fans voiced their dislike for the rules at the time, and once the 2022 season concluded, the NFL was forced to have a conversation about how to improve the game. 

On March 29th, 2022, the NFL and all the team owners met in Palm Beach, Florida in order to discuss rules changes that ownership proposed to executives within the NFL. The first order of business that was suggested by the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles, was to fix the overtime rules. This change amends rule 16, which now allows both teams an opportunity to possess the ball in overtime, specifically in the postseason. These owners believe that in a do-or-die situation, both teams should have the opportunity to possess the ball and have the chance to score and put their organization into the next round. This news was bittersweet for the Bills organization and fans as they wished this rule change was implemented before their heartbreaking loss, but on the other hand, this rule change allows this to never happen to another team again. 

The Setup Zone

In an effort to provide more excitement and competition in the game, a second rule change involves the kick-off setup and where players can line up. While this rule doesn’t carry the same magnitude of the postseason overtime adjustment, this rule states that until the ball is kicked, all players must be behind the restraining line. Additionally, between 8-9 players have to be positioned in a place between their restraining line and 15 yards behind their restraining line. This new rule was implemented in 2021 and has now been made permanent for the 2022 season and beyond. For coaches and other personnel, this will adjustment will allow them to strategize differently. 

International Expansion

In a move that focuses on the growth and development of the league itself, the NFL announced last year that 18 teams would be granted access to 26 International Home Marketing Areas (IHMA) across eight different countries. This has allowed clubs to access international segments for marketing, fan engagement, and commercialization initiatives, which have started to take effect for this season. This move is part of a long-term goal to enable clubs to continue to build their global brands while also exposing consumers around the world to the sport of football, specifically the NFL. Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy and Growth Officer, Christopher Halpin, explains that this initiative enables NFL teams to curate meaningful relationships with fans abroad while driving fan growth and awareness of the league.

As an example, in order to grow their team’s fan base, primarily in Germany, the Kansas City Chiefs recently agreed to a streaming partnership with DAZN, a global sports entertainment platform. This comes after NFL Europe started selling Chiefs apparel with the German flag on it, and has opened up new advertising and content opportunities. Teams will have access to these abroad markets for a five-year period in which a team will have the chance to pursue in-person and digital marketing, corporate sponsorship sales, fan activation events, youth football activities, merchandise sales, and more. For example, the NFL can hold fan fests throughout pre-games to meet and greet with team legends. All 32 teams within the league will play at least one international game in the next eight seasons, the first one coming between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints on October 2nd. 

Bringing New Energy to the Field

The NFL is charting new terrority with its existing partnership with Gatorade, launching a no sugar, no carbonation caffeinated beverage called Fast Twitch. For this upcoming season, the drink will be featured on the sidelines during games throughout the league. Product won’t hit the shelves until February 2023, building excitement and buzz for fans looking to get their hands on a drink that was developed with sports performance in mind. What’s even more interesting about this new product is that the NFL and PepsiCo will share revenue on the sales, helping push across the line a renewal deal that the two were struggling to see eye to eye on. This is a highly uncommon arrangement to date that could set precedent for future sponsorships with major sports properties.  

With the first Monday Night Football game taking place tonight, NFL fans have a lot to look forward to. From progressive rule changes to new initiatives focusing on fan engagement, the NFL is staying in tune with the ever-changing sports industry. Get your taco dip ready and your fantasy football lineups out – it’s going to be an exciting season.

Sources

  1. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/2022-nfl-rule-changes/ar-AAYePjx#:~:text=Free%20Kick%20Formation%20The%20second%20approved%20rule%20change,,stated%20effect%20is%20it,%20%E2%80%9Cprovides%20excitement%20and%20competition.%E2%80%9D
  2. https://fox4kc.com/sports/chiefs/deal-announced-to-broadcast-kansas-city-chiefs-games-in-germany/
  3. https://www.fooddive.com/news/gatorade-debuts-caffeinated-energy-drink-fast-twitch/631070/
  4. https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/SB-Blogs/Newsletter-Football/2022/09/08

The Uncertain Future of College Football Realignment

By Devin Kelley

A University or college football team is essentially a business. With the sheer amount of money and profitability within college football, it is obvious that schools are looking to put themselves in the best position to grow and ensure long-term success. One way to ensure this vision is to be in the conference with the most publicity, viewership, and sponsorship deals available. Each conference is marketable in its own ways, but there are a certain few that rank much higher than others in terms of value. This is what college football teams are currently taking into consideration when deciding what conference to remain in or transfer to, if given that option.

Why Realignment Is Reshaping College Football’s Power Structure

Keeping all of the factors above in mind, we can see why schools are considering conference realignment. This is uncharted territory for college football as rule changes from the NCAA have allowed athletes to profit off their name, image, and likeness. This landmark decision, in turn, has completely upended the business of college sports for athletes, schools, and agents. This makes it difficult for most to define what a modern day partnership looks like. Schools are trying to keep up with the changing times and this is probably why teams like Texas and Oklahoma have decided to leave the Big 12 conference and transfer to the Southeastern Conference (SEC) because the conference will pay its schools more money. We have also seen USC and UCLA decide to jump ship on the PAC-12 and join the Big Ten conference, leaving fans wondering what’s next for their school.

Media Rights, Money and the Race for Conference Supremacy

Recently, the SEC announced that ESPN and ABC will be taking over the Saturday afternoon football broadcast package. Beginning with the 2024-25 season, ESPN and ABC will pay the SEC in the low $300 million range annually. At this point, any team offered to join the SEC conference would surely be interested in joining. If the SEC is backed by an ESPN and ABC duo deal, it is almost guaranteed that teams and the conference will grow immensely throughout the coming seasons. This adds much more leverage to schools when recruiting high school players because they can afford to give athletes more – incentivizing a player to commit.

According to USA Today, the gross revenue for the Power 5 of college football goes as follows: the Big Ten: $768.9 million, SEC: $728.8, Pac-12: $533.8 million, ACC: $496.7 million, and Big 12: $409.2 million. The Big Ten and the SEC have a huge advantage over the next 3 Power Five Conferences. If these conferences continue to grow at the rate they are, some experts believe there will be the possibility of seeing the emergence of a new ‘super conference’ with the Big Ten and the SEC being a part of that.

Similar to how the SEC is recruiting more schools that they think will bring more profitability and growth to their conference, the Big Ten is also doing the same. In a major win for the Big Ten, they were able to secure USC and UCLA to join the Big Ten effectively with the 2024 season. With the addition of these two schools, the bidding war has begun for streaming rights with the Big Ten. Apple is reportedly among the number of companies that are interested. This list includes Fox, CBS, ESPN, NBC and Amazon Prime Video. With that many companies interested in buying the streaming rights for the Big Ten, it is safe to say that the Big Ten should not be worried about its future.

The Institutions Losing Ground: Are the Pac-12, ACC and Others on the Brink?

On the other hand, other conferences within the Power 5 should be concerned. The Pac-12, ACC and Big 12 are now in survival mode and each move they make from here on out can have drastic effects on the success or failure of their conferences. According to Sports Illustrated, there are talks between the ACC and Pac-12 forming some sort of alliance between the two that would help both leagues remain intact. As realignment begins again, powerhouse teams within the ACC like the Clemson football team and UNC basketball team will weigh all options on what the best is for the future of their programs. With the SEC and the Big Ten poised to grow immensely within the coming years, schools want to be a part of that success. Keeping this in mind and seeing the rise of these conferences, any team who gets offered to join the SEC or the Big Ten would be hard to turn down. 

Now that players have to be compensated for their talent and skill on the field, it makes sense that these players playing in the SEC or Big Ten will be paid more generously versus another conference. Players broadcasted on the SEC and the Big Ten networks will likely be playing in front of a much larger audience resulting in more opportunities for these athletes to make deals with companies and agencies, alike. The better players are given a bigger stage to showcase their talents and have a better ability to profit in the better paid conferences. If the better players continue to choose to play in the conference with more money available to them, this will most likely result in a drastic difference in skill level over time when comparing the SEC and the Big Ten to the rest of the teams within Division 1 college football.

What the Next Wave of Moves Means for Student-Athletes, Fans & Brands

Soon more sponsors, partners and agencies will be looking to get involved with the teams and players within the SEC and Big Ten knowing the power, profitability and success within these conferences. With these uncertainties looming in the future within the college football world, schools and teams will weigh out what options are the best for growth and success in the long run. Over the next few months, decisions will be made that will affect the college football landscape for decades to come. Schools are already considering what the best options are for long term growth and success of their athletic programs. It is almost certain that we will see schools engaging in conference realignment in hopes of fulfilling that vision for their respective programs. The only question is: Who will come out on top?

Sources:

  1. www.forbes.com/sites/derekbaine/2022/07/01/big-ten-swipes-usc-and-ucla-from-pac-12-in-big-financial-coup/?sh=6f609bfd19d8
  2. www.wruf.com/headlines/2022/02/11/sec-announces-revenue-distribution/
  3. www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2021/07/26/college-football-if-sec-expands-could-match-ncaa-1-3-billion-revenue/5377990001/
  4. www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/unc/article263209858.html
  5. www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/wall-street-journal-reveals-value-sec-football-program/
  6. www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2022/05/20/pac-12-big-ten-big-12-revenue-fell-pandemic/9855686002/

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